If you're looking to improve your financial over-under by throwing money at weekend games, you'll need more than just a hunch. "Most casual football bettors place wagers with their heart, not their mind," says Johnny Avello, executive director of the sports book at the Wynn hotel in Las Vegas. "But there's less 'luck' in football than in most other kinds of gambling. You've gotta do your research."
Avello's wisdom in setting the lines has made the Wynn the country's go-to sports-betting parlor. He gave a us some tips so that we could create a set of guidelines for gamblers looking to mitigate risk and make a bit of coin.
Look at turnovers.
Another reliable way to beat the spread: Find the teams with massive turnover totals. Eli Manning's Giants have turned over the ball an unholy number of times, but everything in sports and life deviates toward the mean – especially when teams are mediocre rather than outright bad. And remember to bet on teams with erratic offenses rather than solid defenses. It is more likely that a bad offense gets away with a few fumbles and potential interceptions than that a great defense suddenly forgets how to do the job.
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