Week 16 Wide Receivers – Rankings Analysis
I made a swap in my top 10, with Amari Cooper and Jordy Nelson trading slots. The consensus has Nelson above Coop, but I’m not buying it this week. That meant that Michael Crabtree is currently above Cooper, which I’m reading as a bit of an overreaction after Cooper was shadowed by San Diego’s Casey Hayward last week. This left Crabtree as a predictable beneficiary, but the Colts don’t have this effect on opponents. In fact, they get absolutely flamed by opposing #1 receivers. They are 29th in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average against #1 WRs, while they’re seventh vs. #2 WRs and 11th against the slot.
Meanwhile, Nelson will have to tangle with Xavier Rhodes—who wasn’t active in Week Two when these teams first played this season—and that’s just not good for Jordy. He’ll also deal with Terrence Newman when free of Rhodes, and Newman just so happens to have carried a wonderful 86.2 PFF rating into Week 15. At least Green Bay is at home here, and with their recent play it’s difficult to bump Nelson from WR1 territory as a whole, but #5 is too high.
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